Cyclonic Storm ” Tauktae ” very likely to intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 6 hours and into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm during the subsequent 12 hours

very likely to move north-north-westwards and cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar & Naliya around 18th May Afternoon / evening

New Delhi:According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department (IMD):  

The Cyclonic Storm “Tauktae” (pronounced as Tau’Te) over east central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea moved north-north-westwards with a speed of about 11 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 15^th May, 2021 over east central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea near latitude 12.8°N and longitude 72.5°E, about190 km north-northwest of AminiDivi, 330 km south-southwestofPanjim-Goa, 930km south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat) and 1020 km south-southeast of Karachi (Pakistan).

It is very likely to intensify further intoa Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 6 hours and into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm during the subsequent 12 hours. It is very likely to move north-north-westwardsand cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar & Naliyaaround 18^th May Afternoon / evening.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Date/Time(IST)	Position(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)	Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)	Category of cyclonic disturbance
15.05.21/0830	12.8/72.5	75-85 gusting to 95	Cyclonic Storm
15.05.21/1130	13.2/72.5	85-95 gusting to 105	Severe Cyclonic Storm
15.05.21/1730	13.8/72.4	95-105 gusting to 115	Severe Cyclonic Storm
15.05.21/2330	14.5/72.3	110-120 gusting to 135	Severe Cyclonic Storm
16.05.21/0530	15.3/72.0	120-130 gusting to 145	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
16.05.21/1730	16.5/71.5	130-140 gusting to 155	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
17.05.21/0530	18.0/70.7	145-155 gusting to 165	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
17.05.21/1730	19.5/70.0	150-160 gusting to 175	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
18.05.21/0530	20.7/69.4	150-160 gusting to 175	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
18.05.21/1730	22.0/69.1	145-155 gusting to 165	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
19.05.21/0530	24.5/70.0	70-80 gusting to 90	Cyclonic Storm

Warnings:

(i)         Rainfall: 

• Lakshadweep Islands: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over northern Islands on 15^th May and heavy falls at isolated places on 16^th May.
• Kerala: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few placesand extremely heavy falls at isolated places on 15^th, heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16^th and heavy falls at isolated places on 17^th May.
• Tamil Nadu (Ghat districts): Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 15^th May. 
• Karnataka (coastal & adjoining Ghat districts): Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few paces and extremely heavy falls at isolated places on 15^thand heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16^th.
• Konkan & Goa: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over south Konkan & Goa and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over north Konkan on 15^th and heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Konkan & Goa & adjoining Ghat areas on 16^th and heavy falls at isolated places on 17^th May over north Konkan.
• Gujarat:Light to moderate rainfall at many places very likely to commence over coastal districts of Saurashtra from 16^thMay afternoon,at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Saurashtra & Kutch and extremely heavy falls at isolated places ( in Junagarh & Gir Somnath Districts) on 17^th and with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Saurashtra & Kutch withextremely heavy falls (≥ 20 cm) at isolated places (Porbandar, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Jamnagar & Kutch districts) on 18^th.
• West Rajasthan: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places very likely on 18^th& 19^thMay.

(ii) Wind warning

• Squally weather with wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is very likely over Maldives area and equatorial Indian Ocean during next 06 hours.
• Gale wind speed reaching 75 – 85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph is prevailing over east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area. It is likely to increase over east centralArabian Sea becoming 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph from 16^th May morning.
• Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph along & off Kerala coast on 15^thMay.
• Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph likely along & off Karnataka south Maharashtra & Goa coasts on 15^th and Gale winds speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph along & off Maharashtra –Goa coasts on16^th May.
• Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph likely over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off south Gujarat & Daman and Diu coasts on 17^th morning and gradually increase becoming Gale winds speed reaching 150-160 kmph gusting to 175 kmph over northeast Arabian Sea from 18^th morning and  along & off Saurashtra& Kutch coasts (Devbhoomi Dwarka  & Porbandar) and 120 -150 kmph gusting to 165 kmph over Kutch, Porbandar, Junagarh, Jamnagar districts of Gujarat from 18^th Mayafternoon / evening for subsequent 06 hours.

(iii)       Sea condition

• Sea conditions will be very rough over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep – Maldives area & equatorial Indian Ocean during next 06 hours.
• Sea condition over eastcentral Arabian Sea will be high to very high on 15^th& very high to Phenomenal on16^th May and over northeast Arabian Sea on 17^th& 18^thMay.
• Sea conditions will be rough to very rough over Comorin area and along & off Kerala coast on 15^th, very rough to High over east central Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast on 15^th May and Maharashtra – Goa coasts on 15^th& 16^th May. It is very likely to be very rough to High over northeast Arabian Sea along & off south Gujarat coast from 17th May morning and very high to Phenomenal from 18^th morning.

(iv) Storm surge warning

Tidal wave of about 2- 3 m above astronomical tide is likely to inundate coastal areas of Morbi, Kutch, Devbhoomi Dwarka&Jamnagar districts and  1-2 meters along Porbandar, Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bhavnagar and 0.5 to 1m over the remaining coastal districts of Gujarat.

(iv)       Fishermen Warning

• Total suspension of fishing operations over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea and along & off Kerala – Karnataka – Goa – Maharashtra coasts.
• Total suspension of fishing operations over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat coast from 17^th May.
• The fishermen are advised not to venture into southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep – Maldives areas, east central Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast, eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra – Goa coasts and into eastcentral& adjoining northeast Arabian Sea along & off Gujarat coast till 18^th May.
• Those who are out at Sea over north Arabian Sea are advised to return to the coast.

(vi) (A)Damage Expected over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Kutch, Porbandar, Junagarh, Gir Somnath &Jamnagar districts of Gujarat:

• Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses.  Some damage to pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.
• Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.
• Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.  Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signaling systems.
• Widespread damage to salt pans &standing crops, Blowing down of bushy trees.
• Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.
• Visibility severely affected.

(vi) (B) Damage Expected over Amreli, Rajkot & Morbi districts of Gujarat:

• Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly.
• Minor damage to power and communication lines.
• Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
• Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees.
• Major damage to coastal crops.
• Damage to embankments/ salt pans.

(vii) Action Suggested:

• Total suspension of fishing operations.
• Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic.
• People in affected areas to remain indoors. 
• Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.